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Featured SpeakerAlex ThornHead of Firmwide ResearchGalaxy
Hear Alex Thorn share his take on "Bitcoin and Inflation: It’s Complicated” at Consensus 2023.Secure Your SeatFacebook iconLinkedin iconTwitter icon
Featured SpeakerAlex ThornHead of Firmwide ResearchGalaxy
Hear Alex Thorn share his take on "Bitcoin and Inflation: It’s Complicated” at Consensus 2023.Secure Your Seat
Crypto markets traded quietly ahead of the U.S. Easter holiday and following Thursday’s initial jobless claims data release. A change in the prior week’s figures implies that crypto traders have either been acting on incomplete information, or don’t see the information as particularly significant.
For the week ending April 1, 228,000 Americans filed for unemployment, 11% higher than the consensus estimate of 205,000. The report also showed that jobless claims for the week ending March 25 were revised sharply higher from 198,000 to 246,000.
The U.S. Department of Labor attributed the revision to changes in the methodology for seasonality adjustment. As a result, current jobless claims declined by 18,000, in comparison to the revised figure.
With the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) routinely characterizing the labor market as “very tight,” the decline this week is the opposite of what Federal Reserve officials would like to see.
The revision higher for last week appears to align with what FOMC members want to see, too.
It also raises the question whether today’s number is understated, which could potentially lead to a revision higher in next week’s release. Trading activity last week likely did not incorporate the revised figures that were released today.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price on the day of the prior release (March 30) shows a relatively mild decline of 0.93%. Ether’s (ETH) movement was even less significant, falling just 0.04%.
Overall, bitcoin’s price is roughly identical to where it was last Thursday, while ETH is 4.5% higher.
Thus far, neither bitcoin nor ether are trading in a way that suggests the jobs data revision is affecting investors. Conventional wisdom would have suggested that the change would have had a bullish impact on prices.
It could also indicate that crypto investors are unconcerned by the higher, revised number that still fell within a range of acceptable expectations. Friday’s non-farm payrolls data will likely provide additional insights. However, reaction may remain muted as trading volume tends to be lower during U.S. holidays.
Bitcoin 04/06/23 (TradingView)
Edited by James Rubin.
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